- Changes in chromatin accessibility ensure robust cell cycle exit in terminally differentiated cells
- How statistics lost their power – and why we should fear what comes next | William Davies
When Guldi and Harvard historian David Armitage called for their discipline to embrace big data and take a longer view of the past, in their book The History Manifesto, they were slammed in the leading US journal in their field, The American Historical Review. There is a visceral feeling, not only among historians but also among many ordinary people, that humans cannot be reduced to data points and equations.
How can an equation predict a Joan of Arc, or an Oliver Cromwell? It is also, Richeson points out, the only such account for now; the field is young, and different theories may follow. Still, others are excited about the new insights that might emerge from studying human societies in the same way as complex biological systems. How can they make money out of the situation? And when should they buy their plot in New Zealand? W hen Turchin began looking for mathematical descriptions of history in the late s, he found that another scholar had laid much of the groundwork for him, two decades earlier.
The result was a mathematical description of revolution — one half of a model of societal change that Turchin has gone on to complete.
At the time Goldstone began his research, in the mids, the prevailing view of revolution was best understood as a form of class conflict. But Goldstone made two observations that did not fit that view. First, individuals from the same classes, or even the same families, often ended up fighting on opposite sides. And second, revolutions had clustered in certain periods of history — the 14th and 17th centuries, the late 18th-to-early 19th centuries — but there was no obvious reason why class tensions should have boiled over in those periods and not in others.
He suspected there were deeper forces at work, and he wanted to know what they were. Serendipitously, and because he was short of cash, Goldstone ended up working as a teaching assistant for a Harvard demographer named George Masnick, who showed him the deep social, political and economic impact of the baby boom in the US, following the second world war. That youth bulge was accompanied by new tensions in society, including pressure on the labour market and a hunger for radical ideologies.
Only a few years earlier, the level of detail he needed would not have been available, but the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure in the UK, along with similar groups across Europe, had begun painstakingly reconstructing population histories based on sources such as parish records.
In the 18th century, the Rev Thomas Malthus argued that a population eventually outgrows its resources, imploding in a toxic cloud of conflict and disease until, reduced once again to manageable proportions, it enters a new phase of growth. The theory Goldstone went on to construct borrowed from Malthus, but importantly, it removed the dismal inevitability of that cycle. It claimed that population growth exerts pressure on societies, which they channel in complex and idiosyncratic ways. The analogy he uses is that of an earthquake. Seismic forces accumulate beneath a plateau until it starts to shake, but whether the buildings on the plateau stand, fall or sustain some intermediate level of damage depends on how they were constructed.
That is why revolutions cluster in history, but within a given period of turbulence not all societies succumb. Goldstone recognised that the different components of a society — state, elites, masses — would respond differently to strain, but that they would also interact.
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In other words, he was dealing with a complex system whose behaviour was best captured mathematically. His model of why revolutions occur consists of a set of equations, but a crude verbal description goes something like this: as the population grows there comes a point where it outstrips the ability of the land to support it. The standard of living of the masses falls, increasing their potential for violent mobilisation.
The state tries to counteract this — for example, by capping rents — but such measures alienate the elite whose financial interests they hurt. Since the elite has also been expanding, and competing ever more fiercely for a finite pool of high-status jobs and trappings, the class as a whole is less willing to accept further losses.
So the state must tap its own coffers to quell the masses, driving up national debt. The more indebted it becomes, the less flexibility it has to respond to further strains. Eventually, marginalised members of the elite side with the masses against the state, violence breaks out and the government is too weak to contain it. In each case, however, there had been one more factor in the mix: chance. Although you could not predict the trigger — meaning you could not know precisely when the crisis would occur — you could measure the structural pressures and hence, the risk of such a crisis.
It was a simple model, and Goldstone acknowledged as much. Incomplete as they were, his efforts led him to see revolution in a depressing new light: not as a democratic correction to an inflexible and corrupt ancien regime, but as a response to an ecological crisis — the inability of a society to absorb rapid population growth — that rarely resolved that crisis. Nor were these patterns confined to the past. As Goldstone was putting the finishing touches to his magnum opus, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World, the Soviet Union was unravelling. Goldstone admits that it did not have the impact he had hoped.
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Then one day in he got a call from Peter Turchin. Part of what attracted him to the question of why societies implode is that he had personally witnessed one self-destruct. He was born in Russia, but his family defected to the US in , and he did not return to Moscow until There were drunk people lying everywhere.
Changes in chromatin accessibility ensure robust cell cycle exit in terminally differentiated cells
These were images that stayed with him. Ice cores from Greenland turn out to be an exquisite proxy for economic activity in Europe, for example, because the permafrost traps pollution and tracks its fluctuations over centuries. The informational value of these proxies had long been recognised, but now there was quantitative data on them spanning decades and sometimes centuries, meaning that you could discern trends over time. The more proxies you had for a given variable, the more accurate a picture of the past you could paint.
In Historical Dynamics, in , Turchin demonstrated a pattern of secular cycles in the societies that evolved into modern-day France and Russia from the first millennium BC until roughly Out of his long life of eighty years, sixty were spent amid its lakes and mountains, first as a schoolboy at Hawkshead , and afterwards living in Grasmere — and Rydal Mount — Wordsworth, Coleridge and Southey became known as the Lake Poets. The poet and his wife lie buried in the churchyard of Grasmere and very near to them are the remains of Hartley Coleridge son of the poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge , who himself lived for many years in Keswick, Ambleside and Grasmere.
Robert Southey , the Poet Laureate and friend of Wordsworth who would succeed Southey as Laureate in , was a resident of Keswick for forty years —43 , and was buried in Crosthwaite churchyard. From to John Wilson lived at Windermere. Thomas de Quincey spent the greater part of the years to at Grasmere, in the first cottage which Wordsworth had inhabited. Ambleside, or its environs, was also the place of residence both of Thomas Arnold , who spent there the vacations of the last ten years of his life and of Harriet Martineau , who built herself a house there in Brantwood , a house beside Coniston Water, was the home of John Ruskin during the last years of his life.
His assistant W. Collingwood the author, artist and antiquarian lived nearby, and wrote Thorstein of the Mere, set in the Norse period. In addition to these residents or natives of the Lake District, a variety of other poets and writers made visits to the Lake District or were bound by ties of friendship with those already mentioned above. Although it is unlikely she ever went there, Letitia Elizabeth Landon produced no less than sixteen poems on subjects within the Lake District and its surroundings, all associated with engravings within Fisher's Drawing Room Scrap Books, from to During the early 20th century, the children's author Beatrix Potter was in residence at Hill Top Farm, setting many of her famous Peter Rabbit books in the Lake District.
Arthur Ransome lived in several areas of the Lake District, and set five of his Swallows and Amazons series of books, published between and , in a fictionalised Lake District setting. The novelist Sir Hugh Walpole lived at "Brackenburn" on the lower slopes of Catbells overlooking Derwent Water from until his death in Whilst living at "Brackenburn" he wrote The Herries Chronicle detailing the history of a fictional Cumbrian family over two centuries. The noted author and poet Norman Nicholson came from the south west lakes, living and writing about Millom in the 20th century — he was known as the last of the Lake Poets and came close to becoming the Poet Laureate.
The Lakes has been an inspirations for many notable artists. Some of the most famous artists to depict the region in their work have been Alfred Heaton Cooper and William Heaton Cooper. Writer and author Melvyn Bragg was brought up in the region and has used it as the setting for some of his work, such as his novel A Time to Dance , later turned into a television drama.
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The Lake District is mentioned in Jane Austen 's Pride and Prejudice ; Elizabeth Bennet looks forward to a holiday there with her aunt and uncle and is "excessively disappointed" upon learning they cannot travel that far. The opening of Charlotte Turner Smith 's novel Ethelinde with its atmospheric description of Grasmere , complete with a Gothic abbey, is supposed to have induced Wordsworth into looking to it as a possible place of residence. The German artist Kurt Schwitters visited the Lake District while in exile in Great Britain and moved there permanently in June , remaining there for the rest of his life.
Adams' knowledge of the area offers the reader a precise view of the natural beauty of the Lake District.
How statistics lost their power – and why we should fear what comes next | William Davies
The story is based at a fictionalised version of the remote hill farm of Lawson Park, overlooking Coniston Water. The base of contemporary art commissioner and residency base Grizedale Arts since , Lawson Park now hosts artists' residencies, opens to the public on occasion, and has developed a significant garden that includes art works alongside extensive plantings. Grizedale Arts has produced many internationally-significant cultural projects and has proved instrumental in the careers of several Turner Prize -winning artists, making Laure Provoust's winning installation 'Wantee' at Lawson Park, and bringing the exhibition to Coniston's Ruskin Museum in It also supported the refurbishment of the historic Coniston Institute and developed an Honest Shop there opening in , an unstaffed shop stocking local crafts and produce.
A number of words and phrases are local to the Lake District and are part of the Cumbrian dialect , though many are shared by other northern dialects. These include:. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Mountainous region in North West England. This article is about the mountainous region in the North-West of England.
For other uses, see Lake District disambiguation.
yoku-nemureru.com/wp-content/mobile-spyware/2724-mobile-phone.php Main article: Lake District National Park.